First Round Breakdown - Midwest

S. Paul back here again, with my calculations on what will unfold in the first round in the Midwest Regional. Enjoy! (And don't tell BB!)

(1) Kansas vs. (16) Portland St.
BREAKDOWN: According to historical records, databases, Joe Lunardi's brain and The Star-Ledger's microfiche archive, no No. 1 seed has ever flown this far under the radar as Kansas. No chatter about this team. None. Though after punching them through the Bracket-Computer, it says they'll have the biggest win differential of any of the 1 vs. 16 matchups.
PERSON TO WATCH: Kansas F Brandon Rush. Has quietly been one of the Big 12's better players over his career. Good chance he goes for 20-25 points against the Vikes.
BRACKET-COMPUTER SAYS: Kansas.

(2) Georgetown vs. (15) UMBC
BREAKDOWN: Roy Hibbert should play about 30 minutes in this one, according to all calculations. Not because of foul trouble or poor play, but because that's all he'll need. The Retrievers' tallest player is 6-10 C/F Tyler Massey. That's not enough.
PERSON TO WATCH: Georgetown G Jonathan Wallace. He's had a hot hand from behind the 3-point arc, making 10 in his last three games. Getting off to a good start in this one should help the Hoyas chances.
BRACKET-COMPUTER SAYS: Georgetown ... with the same final score in the team's first and only meeting during the 1987-88 season: 89-59.

(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) Cal-State Fullerton
BREAKDOWN: Wisconsin is generally a lock in most early round tournament games, because they play no-nonsense, smart basketball. They make don't turn the ball over a lot, make FT's and make a good chunk of their high-percentage shots.
PERSON TO WATCH: Cal-State Fullerton G Josh Akognon. The junior guard averages a hair under 20 points a game, makes 90 percent of his FT's and shoots nearly 40 percent from 3-point range.
BRACKET-COMPUTER SAYS: Wisconsin

(4) Vanderbilt vs. (13) Siena
BREAKDOWN: Siena's a solid team that can put some points up on the board (just ask Rider), but Vandy is a bigger handful than any MAAC opponent they've seen. Plus, the Commodores might come in with a little chip on their shoulders after being bounced early from the SEC Tournament.
PERSON TO WATCH: Vanderbilt G Shan Foster. He averages 20 points a game and shoot 47 percent from behind the arc. He's about the most prolific scorer Siena has seen all year.
BRACKET-COMPUTER SAYS: Vanderbilt

(5) Clemson vs. (12) Villanova
BREAKDOWN: The Tigers turned some heads by making it all the way to the ACC finals, beating Duke in the process. Villanova meanwhile, has a myriad of scoring options in addition to do-it-all PG Scottie Reynolds.
PERSON TO WATCH: Villanova SG Corey Stokes. The freshman from Bayonne (Jersey alert!) is one of the best shooters coach Jay Wright has coached. If the Wildcats can get him and Reynolds hot, no opponent is too big.
BRACKET-COMPUTER SAYS: **Upset** Villanova

(6) Southern Cal vs. (11) Kansas State
BREAKDOWN: Information pouring into the Secret Lab says that there could be more NBA scouts at this game than at the Portsmouth Invitational. Trojans G O.J. Mayo and Wildcats F Michael Beasley will have the spotlight squarely on them. But it's how well USC shuts down Kansas State's other players that will be the key.
PERSON TO WATCH: Kansas State G Bill Walker. Mayo's former HS running mate will receive the open looks when USC drops the extra man on Beasley. He'll need to make those looks for the Wildcats to win.
BRACKET-COMPUTER SAYS: **Upset** Kansas State

(7) Gonzaga vs. (10) Davidson
BREAKDOWN: A shame of a game if there ever was one. I was looking forward to having Davidson and super-shooter Stephen Curry be a sleeper Sweet 16 pick, but alas, Gonzaga might be too much to overcome. Bulldogs are tested and played an insane 12 games against teams in this year's field, going 7-5.
PERSON TO WATCH: Davidson G Stephen Curry. If for nothing else than to watch his jump-shot. Really a thing a beauty. My predictions are that he will net 25-30 in a loss.
BRACKET-COMPUTER SAYS: Gonzaga ... in overtime.

(8) UNLV vs. (9) Kent State
BREAKDOWN: I've heard a rumor from my co-worker Ding that Bracket Boy's almighty inflator was a Kent State graduate. No confirmation to this yet, but the Golden Flashes know how to make a um..flash in the NCAA's. They made the Elite 8 a few years ago. Totally different team and coach, but the history is there.
PERSON TO WATCH: UNLV coach Lon Kruger. He's got a pretty impressive record in the NCAA's. He's 13-10 all-time between stops at Kansas State, Florida, Illinois and now UNLV. But he always seems to get the most out of his team this month.
BRACKET-COMPUTER SAYS: Kent State