First Round Breakdown - West

Greetings everyone. Ding here with my picks for the first round of the West Regional.

(1) UCLA vs. (16) MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
BREAKDOWN: The Bruins are projected to have easiest path to the Final Four of any No. 1 seed in what is considered the weakest quarter of the bracket. For now, UCLA must beat Mississippi Valley State, the SWAC champion whose most famous athletic alumnus is a football player (Jerry Rice), rather than a hoopster. Look for UCLA to go inside to freshman Kevin Love early on the way to a blowout; Mississippi Valley State has just one player in its rotation over 6-6.
PERSON TO WATCH: UCLA F Kevin Love. All eyes will be on the Pac-10 Player of the Year, but in this game, not for the reason you may think. Love had lower backs spasms in the Pac-10 championship game against Stanford and his un-Love-like line in the box score (12 points, six rebounds) showed he was bothered. UCLA will coast, but Love’s performance may reveal his status for the tougher tests down the road in the tournament.
DING’S MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS: UCLA.

(8) BYU vs. (9) Texas A&M
BREAKDOWN: Texas A&M has been the most enigmatic team in the nation this season, which is the last thing you want when filling out your bracket. Which team will show up? The team that started the season 15-1 and beat Texas by 17 on Jan. 30, or the team that lost five of its last seven in the regular season and lost to Texas by 27 – there’s no way of knowing. Texas A&M comes in giving up just 61.4 points per game, 13th best in the field, but Ding thinks this one will turn into a shootout, and BYU is 20-1 when scoring at least 70 points.
PERSON TO WATCH: BYU C Trent Plaisted. The 6-11 junior scores 15.8 per game and pulls down just under eight boards. He’ll get A&M’s freshman center DeAndre Jordan in foul trouble in the first half, weakening the Aggies at both ends of the floor.
DING’S MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS: BYU.

(5) Drake vs. (12) Western Kentucky:
BREAKDOWN: It’s an old cliché among bracket veterans that at least one No. 5 seed will lose to a No. 12 in each NCAA Tournament. Since every sports cliché is right, let me be the first to tell you to look no further for this season’s No. 5 vs. No. 12 upset. Drake had a wonderful season – you may even call it a magical season – but if you looked at these teams in November, you would have thought Western Kentucky was better than Drake. Western Kentucky had a better conference record (16-2) in the Sun Belt Conference, which got an at-large team (South Alabama) into the tournament, than Drake (15-3), which took advantage of a weak Missouri Valley Conference this season. Except for Illinois State, Drake’s top wins are against teams that didn’t even sniff the field of 65, while Western Kentucky beat Nebraska and only lost to Tennessee by six – Western Kentucky’s six losses came by an average of 5.2 points. Western Kentucky will come into this game with blinders on; it won’t care about Drake’s seed and probably thinks its better than Drake.
PERSON TO WATCH: Western Kentucky F Courtney Lee. In this game, Lee will be the only player with NBA-caliber talent on the floor. Drake won’t be able to cover the senior, who averages a shade less than 21 points per game and has over 2,000 points in his career.
DING’S MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS: UPSET*Western Kentucky.

(4) Connecticut vs. (13) San Diego
BREAKDOWN: Connecticut coach Jim Calhoun is 14-0 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and that’s just about all you need to know about this game. San Diego made a great run to win the WCC Tournament, but Connecticut is from the Big East, not the WCC. Connecticut has five players who score in double figures and three guys who average at least six boards per game, which is just too much depth for San Diego to contend with. Still not convinced? Consider this: San Diego makes just five 3-pointers per game, ranking them 300th nationally, while Connecticut leads the nation in blocked shots, led by 7-3 center Hasheem Thabeet, who swats 4.6 per game. San Diego’s strength on offense is Connecticut’s strength on defense.
PERSON TO WATCH: Connecticut C Hasheem Thabeet. The big guy will match up with San Diego’s only hope of victory, center Gyno Pomare. Just a junior, Pomare already has over 1,200 career points and 600 rebounds. Thabeet needs to avoid the foul trouble that plagued him during Connecticut’s quarterfinal loss in the Big East Tournament to neutralize Pomare on the defense, and maybe score some points at the other end.
DING’S MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS: Connecticut.

(6) Purdue vs. (11) Baylor
BREAKDOWN: This is one of those intriguing matchups in which each team plays a completely different style. Baylor wants to score (81.4 ppg), Purdue is a defensive team that wants to slow it down and grind it out, giving up just 60.8 points per game. Purdue looked capable of beating anyone in the middle of the season when it won 14 of 15 games, but stumbled down the stretch, finishing 3-3. Ding thinks the reason for the cool finish is because Purdue’s freshman core of E’Twaun Moore (who will engage in a game-long battle with Baylor’s LaceDarius Dunn for most creative first name, but most mundane surname in the regional), Robbie Hummel and Scott Martin is beginning to wear down. The Big Ten was very tough this season, with the conference’s Big Four playing each other multiple times down the stretch.
PERSON TO WATCH: Purdue F Robbie Hummel. The freshman scored 11.7 per game, shot 46 percent from 3-point range and did a little bit of everything else for the Boilermakers this season. Hummel is capable of making the little plays (offensive rebounds, taking charges) necessary to win in the postseason.
DING’S MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS: E’Twaun wins the battle, but Baylor wins the war. If you think Baylor is a great story now, wait until it rides the good karma of its fourth 20-win season in 102 years of basketball into the second round.

(3) Xavier vs. (14) Georgia
BREAKDOWN: Georgia defied the odds, statistical analysis, even Mother Nature in last week’s sensational run to the SEC Tournament title. You can’t know what you’re going to get from Georgia in the NCAA Tournament, but you do know that it will come into this game against Xavier extremely confident, and believing it can win. Xavier is the only Division one team with six players averaging double figures in points per game, and shoots well from the field (48 percent) and the foul line (75 percent).
PERSON TO WATCH: Xavier G Drew Lavender. Xavier had the best season in school history and it was due in large part to tiny point guard Drew Lavender. The team struggled when Lavender went down with a sprained left ankle but now he is healthy, bringing Xavier back to full strength at just the right time. He is the leader in assists (4.3 per game) on a team that scores 61 percent of its field goals off assists.
DING’S MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS: Xavier.

(7) West Virginia vs. (10) Arizona
BREAKDOWN: The selection committee believed in Arizona when few else did, and deservedly rewarded it with this spot in the field. The Wildcats ranked second in strength of schedule and played most of the season with key players missing to injury. But now healthy and battle-tested, Arizona instantly becomes a very dangerous No. 10 seed, featuring one of the regional’s best players, Jerryd Bayliss, and a great secondary scorer, Chase Budinger. The 6-7 Budinger will be matched against West Virginia’s Joe Alexander, who averaged over 30 points a game over his last four before 12 against Georgetown. Budinger averages 17.2 points per game. Arizona more talent than West Virginia’s man-to-man defense can handle.
PERSON TO WATCH: Arizona G Nic Wise: After knee surgery during the season, Wise’s return to the rotation has made a significant impact, despite his modest numbers. Wise hands out four assists and handles the ball when on the floor, which allows Bayliss (20.4 ppg) to score more as the other guard.
DING’S MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS: Arizona, lest we forget Bob Huggins is now the coach of West Virginia.

(2) Duke vs. (15) Belmont
BREAKDOWN: Belmont averages just under 81 points per game, but Duke averages 84.5, the second most in the field. So, any shot Belmont had is gone, because Duke plays the same style, only better. Duke will shoot the 3 well, drive to the basket at will and win easily in front of a partisan crowd.
PERSON TO WATCH: Duke F Kyle Singler. Even if I completely misjudged this bracket, the consolation would be to see a matchup between Singler and Hummel. Like his Purdue counterpart, Singler score, rebounds and doesn’t stop moving the whole game.
DING’S MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS: Duke.