Sweet 16 Breakdown - West and South

I'm Ding and here is my preview of the Sweet 16 round in the West and South Regionals:

WEST:
(1) UCLA vs. (12) Western Kentucky
BREAKDOWN: Cinderella Davidson has stolen the show heading into the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend, but No. 12 Western Kentucky is actually the lowest seed remaining – which is horrible news for the Hilltoppers and the object of BB’s obsession, Big Red. No. 12 seeds are 0-13 in the Sweet 16 against No. 1 seeds all-time, and it seems doubtful that losing streak will end tonight. UCLA will use its trademark man-to-man defense to lock up the guards who have dragged Western Kentucky to Phoenix, Courtney Lee and Tyrone Brazelton. Kevin Love will have success inside against Western Kentucky’s front line of D.J. Magley and Jeremy Evans, and it would be surprising if he didn’t put up numbers comparable to Drake’s Jonathan Cox from the first round (29 points, 16 rebounds).
PERSON TO WATCH: Western Kentucky G Courtney Lee. The senior was the person to watch for the Hilltoppers last time the West Regional was previewed in this space, but if UCLA Coach Ben Howland has been talking about him all week in practice, then I should too. Lee is averaging 22 points in two NCAA Tournament games and will have to score early like he did against San Diego to build the Hilltoppers’ confidence. I figure Howland will start with the quick and surprisingly strong defender Russell Westbrook guarding Lee, even though he will be conceding two inches in height. But if the Pac-10 defensive player of the year gets in foul trouble, Lee will have the advantage against Josh Shipp, the 6-5 junior who will relieve Westbrook.
DING’S MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS: UCLA.

(3) Xavier vs. (7) West Virginia
BREAKDOWN: Xavier looked neither pretty, nor dominant in Washington D.C. last weekend. In fact, the Musketeers looked far from dominant, but were still able to grind out a pair of victories, which is exactly what successful teams do this time of year. Xavier hasn’t been given a shot in this tournament by many and here’s why: the Musketeers don’t have a true identity, which scares people away. They are able to adapt to each game, regardless of the shape it takes on. Look at the Purdue game: Xavier won the first half, which was slow and defensive-minded, 35-32. But when the game became more wide open in the second half, Xavier was still able to outscore Purdue, 50-46. This team is deep, adaptable and relentless, which is scary for any opponent, or bracketoligist.
PERSON TO WATCH: West Virginia F Da’Sean Butler. Xavier will have to gameplan to stop West Virginia’s leading scorer Joe Alexander, and I think those matchups will be favorable for the Musketeers. While the defense is focused on Alexander, it will be the Newark product Butler who must come to West Virginia’s aid. Butler had a huge impact against Arizona, scoring 19 and pulling 7 rebounds in 38 minutes, but against Duke he scored just eight points in 19 minutes before fouling out.
DING’S MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS: Xavier.

SOUTH:
(1) Memphis vs. (5) Michigan State
BREAKDOWN: Both of these teams can score, but for Michigan State to win it needs to slow the game down. Memphis wants to run, but it was evident against Mississippi State on Sunday that an aggressive defensive and deliberate offensive team can have success against the Tigers. In a slower, half-court game, however, Michigan State and Memphis do not match up well against each other. The Spartans give up some serious size in the backcourt and Raymar Morgan won’t be able to guard Memphis’ Chris Douglas-Roberts on the perimeter. The good news for Michigan State is that Douglas-Roberts won’t be able to guard Morgan inside at the other end of the floor. Look for both teams to go zone defensively in the half court.
PERSON TO WATCH: Michigan State G Kalin Lucas. Perhaps the quickest player in the tournament, the 6-0 freshman’s speed is a great asset for Michigan State. Lucas should be able to break Memphis’ full-court pressure throughout the game and run the offense, but his biggest impact may come at the defensive end. Michigan State coach Tom Izzo is savvy, and a winner in March, and don’t be surprised to see him pull out the box-and-one defense that USC used so effectively against Memphis and its freshman point guard Derrick Rose. If that is the case, Lucas will be the primary solo defender on Rose.
DING’S MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS: UPSET ALERT *Michigan State, as Memphis becomes the first No. 1 seed to fall.

(2) Texas vs. (3) Stanford
BREAKDOWN: The more I think about it, the more excited I get about the two games in the South Regional tomorrow. This regional definitely has the two best Sweet 16 games, and this one should go down to the wire, just like Memphis vs. Michigan State. Stanford is a solid defensive team that relies on its Twin Towers in the frontcourt. Texas is a guard oriented team that starts three players 6-2 or shorter. Which style will win? The Lopez twins were fantastic in the last game, but look at what Marquette’s three guards did against the slower, less athletic Stanford backcourt: the three who played at least 34 minutes combined to score 53 points against Stanford. Plus, Texas will have a distinct home-court advantage in Houston, the adopted hometown of Texas point guard D.J. Augustin, who can make this weekend his if he wills it.
PERSON TO WATCH: Texas F Connor Atchley. The 6-10 junior gives up two inches to the Lopez boys, but will be matched up with one of them all night long as the tallest man in the ‘Horn’s rotation. However, offensively could be where he makes the biggest difference. Stanford must respect Atchley’s ability to shoot from the perimeter, so when one of the Lopez twins steps out to guard him, it will open up the lane for penetration opportunities for Texas’ quick guards.
DING’S MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS: Texas.